Premier Football League Results As an Accurate Guide to Performance

This is my hypothesis, in a ‘perfect’ world where each team would remain unchanged over two seasons, for example, would the points earned in the first season give a reliable enough measurement of performance so as to aid the football bettor to predict outcomes in the second season. The objective being to make a profit.

One important factor is the current scoring system of 3 points a win, a point for a draw and (obviously) no points for a loss. What about a team who consistently draw, in a season they would earn 38 points. Another team who win half of their games and lose the other half would earn 57 points. So, does the points system accurately rate teams abilities?. If it does why do the teams above have such a difference in points?.

As an example, comparing two performance figures for an upcoming match inufabet ติดต่อ the second season may give figures such as 60 points for one team and 50 points for the other, these figures being supplied from the final league table results for the first season. It’s clear that these two figures alone would not be sufficient to make an accurate assessment of the resulting game.

The possibility I’ve tried so far is:-

Compute an average goals scored per match for each team individually, then computing a standard distribution of goals for that team. Then combine the two team’s distributions giving prices for all combinations of results. Comparing the computed results against bookies odds would highlight ‘generous’ offers.

Other factors such as home advantage needs considering therefore two distributions per team (for home and away) may need consideration.

Football is an unpredictable game too, some teams consistently do well against another team and so on. In each case the factor may require the prediction to be tweaked.